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Why We Built This

In the early 1970s, investors who held oil companies, gold miners, and consumer staples got paid while everything else fell apart. They weren't geniuses, but they owned things that made money when prices rose and people still needed to buy them regardless.

That's the idea behind this list.

Right now, Brent crude is sitting near $102 a barrel after disruptions to oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Core inflation hasn't moved toward the Fed's 2% target in two years. Job growth has slowed to a crawl and the Fed can't cut because inflation is still too high. It can't raise because growth is already stalling.

That's the setup. These 15 names are built for it.

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Every name had to clear three bars:

Pricing power- can it pass rising costs to customers?

Cash flow durability - does it generate real money even when the economy is weak?

Business model - does it need growth to function?

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XOM - ExxonMobil | Energy Major

ExxonMobil pumps oil and gas, refines it, and sells it globally. Simple business. Very large.

Why it's here: Oil is XOM's product, and oil just went up a lot. The company earned $28.8 billion in 2025 when Brent was averaging in the $60s. With crude now near $100, the math gets considerably better. Each sustained $10 increase in oil prices adds roughly $2–3 billion to annual earnings at XOM's scale. It also returned $37.2 billion to shareholders last year through dividends and buybacks, which is more than most companies earn.

One number: 3.35% dividend yield - paid continuously for decades and growing.

What to watch: Whether Brent holds above $90. That's the level where XOM's lower-cost assets in the Permian Basin and offshore Guyana generate the free cash flow the rest of the thesis depends on.

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LMT - Lockheed Martin | Defense

Lockheed is the world's largest defense contractor. It makes the F-35 fighter jet, THAAD missile defense systems, and PAC-3 interceptors, among much else.

Lockheed earns its place not because of the current conflict, but because of how it gets paid. Most of its revenue comes from cost-plus government contracts, which means when material costs go up, the government covers the difference. That's as close to inflation-proofing as equities get. The company's backlog - work already under contract but not yet delivered - stands at a record $194 billion. Earnings per share are expected to jump roughly 29% in 2026.

$13.80 per share annual dividend, covered by more than $6.5 billion in projected free cash flow this year.

What to watch: First quarter earnings on April 21. The missile and fire control segment, THAAD and PAC-3, is where near-term growth is concentrated.

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NEM - Newmont Corporation | Gold Producer

Newmont mines gold. It's the world's largest gold producer, with operations across the U.S., Ghana, Australia, Peru, and Canada.

Gold is near $5,000 an ounce. Newmont's all-in cost to produce an ounce is about $1,680. That $3,300 margin per ounce is not typical and is function of gold prices that have risen sharply while production costs stayed relatively contained. The company generated a record $7.3 billion in free cash flow last year. It beat Q4 earnings estimates by 24%. This isn't a speculative gold play. It's a cash machine with a fixed cost structure and a hard asset backing it.

$7.3 billion in 2025 free cash flow means record cash generation, with no signs of the gold price retreating.

What to watch: Earnings on April 23. Gold needs to hold above roughly $4,500 an ounce for the margin story to stay intact.

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WMT - Walmart | Consumer Retail

Walmart runs 10,500+ stores globally. It sells food, household goods, and just about everything else at the lowest price it can manage.

When real incomes shrink, consumers stop shopping at premium grocers and specialty retailers. They go to Walmart. This pattern showed up clearly in the 1970s and again during the 2021–2023 inflation run. Walmart also earns roughly $6.4 billion a year in membership and subscription income (Sam's Club, Walmart+), which holds up even when consumer spending contracts. Gross margins actually expanded last quarter, which is the clearest evidence of pricing power in the data.

Membership income was up 17.5% in the last year - that's a durable revenue stream.

What to watch: First-quarter results and whether same-store sales accelerate as consumers continue trading down from higher-priced alternatives.

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GLD - SPDR Gold Shares ETF | Inflation Hedge

GLD holds physical gold bullion and tracks the spot gold price. Expense ratio is 0.40%.

GLD doesn't produce anything, pay a dividend, or generate earnings. That's the entire point. In a stagflation environment, where inflation is elevated but rate cuts are off the table, assets that don't depend on economic growth or corporate earnings tend to hold value simply by existing.

Core inflation hasn't dropped meaningfully toward 2% in two years. Goldman Sachs recently raised its year-end inflation forecast specifically because of rising energy prices. Gold has traded near $5,000 an ounce. This is a portfolio stabilizer in this environment.

Core PCE is at 3.1% annually as of January - unchanged in direction for two years, now facing an energy price shock on top.

What to watch: The Fed's rate decision this week (March 18–19). Short-term rate expectations can pressure gold; the longer-run inflation case is what ultimately drives it.

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The Rest of the Full List

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CVX - Chevron | Energy Major

Chevron is simpler than ExxonMobil in one important way - it's a more direct bet on crude oil prices. It earns most of its money upstream, it pays a 4.5% dividend yield (the highest among U.S. oil majors), and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway holds a roughly $17 billion position in it.

Q4 2025 earnings came in at $1.52 per adjusted share on $46.9 billion in revenue. The stock is up 24% year-to-date. Berkshire's continued ownership and a high yield make this a reasonable alternative to XOM for income-focused investors.

Watch: Hess acquisition integration and whether Guyana assets hit their production targets on schedule.

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SLB - SLB (Schlumberger) | Oilfield Services

When oil companies earn more, they spend more drilling for oil. SLB provides the technology, drilling services, and software that makes that drilling happen. It's it's the pick-and-shovel play on the energy complex.

Q4 2025 EPS came in at $0.78, beating estimates by 5.4%, with 2026 revenue guided at $36.9–37.7 billion.

The stock is up 23% year-to-date with a 2.5% yield.

Watch: International offshore market activity. That's where SLB's 2026 upside is concentrated.

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RTX - RTX Corporation | Defense

RTX makes Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot air defense systems, and Pratt & Whitney commercial jet engines. The defense side operates on the same cost-plus government contract structure as Lockheed. RTX is currently ramping production of five key munitions under a new Pentagon deal, investing $3.1 billion in expanded manufacturing capacity in 2026.

Full-year earnings are expected to grow 8% this year. The stock is up about 28% year-to-date.

Watch: Pratt & Whitney GTF engine margin recovery - that's the drag on earnings and the most direct path to earnings upside if it resolves.

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KO - Coca-Cola | Consumer Staples

Coca-Cola doesn't sell beverages directly. It sells concentrate to bottlers, who handle pricing and distribution. That structure insulates KO's margins from raw material swings in ways that most food companies don't enjoy.

It's raised its dividend for 61 consecutive years, through every inflationary period since the 1960s. Demand for soft drinks doesn't collapse when the economy slows. About 40% of revenue comes from international markets, which provides some natural diversification against U.S.-specific stagflation.

Watch: Organic revenue growth in emerging markets; pricing realization in North America.

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PG - Procter & Gamble | Consumer Staples

Procter & Gamble sells Tide, Gillette, Pampers, and 60+ other household brands. People keep buying these regardless of the economic cycle. PG has raised its dividend for 68 consecutive years, which includes every major inflation episode since the 1950s. Its pricing power held up through the 2021–2023 inflation run better than most analysts expected.

Watch: Volume vs. pricing mix - are people buying as much as before, or just paying more? The former is sustainable.

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CL - Colgate-Palmolive | Consumer Staples

Colgate sells toothpaste, soap, and home cleaning products in 200+ countries. It's raised its dividend for 61 consecutive years. More than 70% of revenue comes from international markets, which gives it geographic diversification that purely domestic staples companies don't have. Demand for oral care is about as inelastic as any product gets.

Watch: Gross margins vs. input cost inflation; emerging market currency trends.

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JNJ - Johnson & Johnson | Healthcare

Johnson & Johnson's pharmaceutical segment generates the majority of revenue from branded drugs with multi-year exclusivity windows - Darzalex and Tecvayli are the primary 2026 earnings drivers. Healthcare spending is the last thing consumers and governments cut. JNJ carries one of the strongest balance sheets in the entire S&P 500.

Watch: Darzalex sales trajectory; any patent cliff developments for the core drug portfolio.

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ABT - Abbott Laboratories | Healthcare

Abbott makes medical devices, diagnostics, and nutritional products across 160 countries. Its FreeStyle Libre continuous glucose monitor is a recurring-revenue franchise growing in double digits as users buy sensors every 14 days indefinitely.

Q4 2025 revenue grew 7% organically year-over-year. Medical device demand doesn't compress when the economy slows.

Watch: FreeStyle Libre 3 U.S. and international launch trajectory.

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FCX - Freeport-McMoRan | Copper / Commodities

Copper is one of the few physical commodities with no viable substitute for electrical infrastructure, motors, or energy transition equipment. FCX is the world's largest publicly traded copper producer.

Unlike the other names on this list, FCX is more directly exposed to global economic conditions. If growth slows sharply, copper demand weakens. It's a conviction bet on inflation persisting more than on growth stalling, and deserves a smaller allocation accordingly.

Watch: LME copper price above $5/lb.

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SCHP - Schwab U.S. TIPS ETF | Inflation-Protected Bonds

TIPS bonds adjust their principal value with CPI, so the interest you earn rises with inflation. This isn't a high-return position but serves as a portfolio anchor that earns a real return when inflation persists.

SCHP carries an expense ratio of just 0.03%, making it one of the most cost-efficient inflation hedges available to retail investors.

Watch: The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate. The bond market's best estimate of where inflation settles over the next decade.

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The Bottom Line

The investors who came through the 1970s with their wealth intact weren't the ones with the best market calls. They were the ones who owned companies whose products people couldn't stop buying, whose revenues rose with prices, and whose dividends kept getting paid regardless of what the Fed was doing.

This list is those companies, for right now.

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The Earnout Investor provides analysis and research but DOES NOT provide individual financial advice. Jamie Dejter may have a position in some of the stocks mentioned. All content is for informational purposes only. The Earnout Investor is not a registered investment, legal, or tax advisor, or a broker/dealer. Trading any asset involves risk and could result in significant capital losses. Please, do your own research before acquiring stocks.

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